What’s the only thing worse than being long gold as it plunged 12% since June 1st? Being long a gold mining company who has massive exposure to the plunging gold price, as well as some added extra exposure in terms of the company’s management, fixed costs, debt, and so on… Just look at the performance of these commodity producer/miner ETFs versus the commodity ETFs versus the actual commodity itself.
Category: Markets
26
Jun
2013
It’s Getting Volatile in Here…
Dull is the last word to use to describe recent events. Vix is at its highest point this year, and the ATR’s of Gold, and the S&P 500 are showing major movements. Could we be seeing the start of a volatility level like in 2007 and 2008? Is this the moment for manged futures to shine once more?
25
Jun
2013
Stock’s Safety Net Disappearing?
Don’t look now, bond investors, but there may be a bit of a sea change happening in how bonds react to falling stock prices (or perhaps, more correctly – how stocks react to falling bond prices). The last five weeks are showing the opposite of the rule, and if that continues, havoc could commence. We plotted out the correlation between the S&P 500 and 30 Year Cash Bonds over the past two years:
20
Jun
2013
Random Thoughts on a Gold Down -$100 Day
Stocks down AND Bonds down (sign of things to come in a rising rate environment?)
Gold down -$100(-6.83%). , broke April lows, now at late 2010 levels
Silver down almost -10%, now lost over 60% since 2011
20
Jun
2013
Big “Risk Off” Day in the Markets…
Markets are down big across the board on the heels of comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the Federal Reserve may start pairing quantitative easing later this year. Stock index futures are down just over 1.50% this morning but the brunt of the losses are being seen in commodities. See how bad it got.
18
Jun
2013
You Thought That was Bad? Look at These Monthly Losses
Comparing Asset Classes monthly is a little bit like looking up at the scoreboard during halftime. After asset class losses in May, Mebane Faber whipped up a chart of the largest monthly losses among various assets dating back to 1972. One Problem, they left out Managed Futures. So we re-created the chart.
14
Jun
2013
The Trend Nobody’s Talking About
Since 2011, coffee has has been on a multi-year decline, but few CTA’s have been following this trend. We reached out to one who has for some insight into this market and why so few managers tend to trade it.
12
Jun
2013
Gundlach’s Next Call – Short Gold
Gundlach’s big calls last year for Short Apple/Long Natural Gas and Short Yen/Long Nikkei turned out to be right on the money. But with those winding down, he has a new predication. This time it’s gold. So where does he see it going?
11
Jun
2013
A Tale of Two Mays
We know… we know… May is almost an afterthought at this point a full week and a half of trading later, but we can’t help but look back with some sense of interest at how markets diverged last month as compared with May one year ago… and why managed futures welcomes the change.
11
Jun
2013
RAID for the Gold Bugs
A broken clock is right twice a day – and for the True Believers in gold, that clock stayed broken from 2001 through mid-2011. Now after two years of falling gold prices, John Paulson, one of the most prominent gold investors has taken a major hit, continuing his losing streak from 2012.
