Low volatility, new highs… you would think everything is hunky dory, that fear of another massive drop would be the furthest thing from people’s minds. Well, someone rather important is thinking about it – namely the SEC, CME, and NYSE. New market-wide circuit breakers and limits for individual shares will soon take effect.
Category: Markets
03
Apr
2013
01
Apr
2013
Long-Only Commodity ETFs vs Futures- March 2013
We’ve made no secret that we think Commodity ETFs are a poor choice for investors, but with commodity ETFs ahead of the Dec futures performance through the end of March, we may need to revisit our premise. But will this change the long-term over/under performance between ETFs and futures contracts? Stay tuned.
01
Apr
2013
Managed Futures Ends March Up 1.24%
The upward trend continued for managed futures in March, posting a third straight positive month. Several market trends emerged or strengthened during the month, but the big story was in the huge drop in grain prices following the USDA grain report – something that several programs we track had not been hoping to see.
28
Mar
2013
Looking for Volatility? Try USDA Grain Reports
So you want to trade the grain markets? Better be on the right side on grain report day – today’s report brought the most volatility we’ve seen in quite a while on a report day. And it also served as a good reminder of why so many discretionary CTAs make their names in the grain markets.
27
Mar
2013
What about Peak Oil Demand?
The natural gas revolution has been busily disrupting energy markets (and also transforming North Dakota’s economy and lighting up the state so much it’s actually visible from space). Now, a report from Citigroup analysts predicts that the rapidly expanding natural gas industry will upend a long-running prediction about the future of oil.
18
Mar
2013
Natural Gas on the Cusp
Natural gas futures have proven even more buoyant than the stock market in the last few weeks – with the price of contracts for April delivery having risen nearly 18% in less than a month. On a longer time frame, prices have stayed in a relatively narrow range for years – but there are several potential developments that could send the market soaring or plunging in the future.
18
Mar
2013
Rising Rates, Falling Returns?
One common criticism of managed futures seems to pop up over and over again – the idea that CTAs returns are nothing more than a tailwind from investing idle capital in T-bonds. But recently we came across a great article analyzing the effect of rising/falling interest rate environments on managed futures, stocks, and bonds… and what they found was definitely cause for a smile.
11
Mar
2013
Four Years Later: Recovery Complete?
The deep pit into which the stock market fell during the 2008 financial crisis is now officially in the rear-view mirror. The Dow has posted new all-time highs, and the S&P 500 is just a few points away from doing the same. Now that we’ve marked another year in the recovery, it’s time to revisit our tradition from the last few years of examining how various markets have fared over the same period.
07
Mar
2013
Asset Class Scoreboard: February 2013
February’s numbers are all in, so we can update our asset class scoreboard to see where the major asset classes stand after the first two months of the year. US stocks and US real estate saw the biggest increases last month, putting the two at the top of the list (where they spent most of 2012). Most of the rest of the list experienced a decline: world stocks, hedge funds, and especially commodities. As a result, managed futures moved up to fourth place despite only a modest gain in February.
06
Mar
2013
Risk On/Risk Off Market Snapshot: February 2013
Keeping tabs on market correlation is a fundamental part of risk management because understanding correlation is key to diversification. If various markets are moving up or down in unison, risk and volatility can quickly grow beyond your expectations. That’s why we’ve started keeping an eye on two statistics that help illustrate how easy or difficult it has been to stay diversified in the futures markets: the risk on/risk off trade, and market correlations.
